通过对利率与产出关系相关研究的总结,作者认为利率政策的产出效应是存在的.进而采用Granger因果检验法对中、美两国利率政策的产出效应进行实证检验和比较分析.结果表明:中国利率政策的产出效应比美国更强。其主要原因是:两国利率政策的目标差异:关键政策利率变量在两国利率政策实施中的角色差异;政策利率调整幅度的大小差异等。基于此,在利率市场化改革和“发展中”的经济进程中,中国应仍以促进经济增长作为利率政策的主要目标之一。同时,应该继续重视和改善对银行存贷款利率进行直接调控的利率政策的实施。
Through summarizing related literatures on the relations between interest rate and output, it was indicated that interest rate policy does affect output. Then, an empirical test and analysis of interest rate policy's output effect of China and America was done in this paper with the method of Granger Causality Test. The conclusion was that the interest rate's output effect of China is superior to America, which lies in the difference of interest rate policy goals of the two countries, the roles of essential interest rate variable in policy's implementation, and the adjusting scope of interest rate. Therefore, in the process of interest rate's marketization reform and the "developing economy" , growth of economy should be taken as one of goals of interest rate policy, and continuous attention should be paid to implementation of interest rate policy that can directly regulate the rate of lending and depositing.