基于上市公司财务报表数据,应用光滑转换非线性面板模型,对上市公司强制分红的合理性进行实证研究。研究结果表明,委托代理成本与融资约束都是影响上市公司现金持有的重要因素,委托代理成本的上升会导致公司现金持有的显著增加,因此通过强制性分红缓解公司经营者持有过多现金的代理成本具有一定的合理性;但公司的现金持有行为显著受公司融资约束程度的影响,受融资约束越严重的公司倾向持有更多现金,因此目前一刀切式的强制性现金分红是不合理的,应考虑到公司所受到的融资约束程度进行区别对待。
Is the policy of compelling dividend payouts reasonable? This paper tries to apply panel smooth transition model and financial data of companies listed to answer above question based on empirical study. Results suggest that both agent costs and financial constraints are important factors to influence the cash holding of companies listed. Increasing of agent costs will lead to the increase of cash holdings significantly. Therefore, it is reasonable to lessen the agent costs by compelling dividend payouts. However, the behavior of cash holdings was influenced greatly by financial constraints. The companies with more financial constraints were intended to keep a high level of cash holding. Therefore, current policy of compelling dividend payouts is somewhat unreasonable, and the right measure is to make a difference according to financial constraints of the companies.