本文在一个包含内生性金融体系的DSGE模型框架下,系统考察了包括货币政策、信贷政策和金融监管政策在内的宏观审慎政策规则及三者之间的协调搭配问题。基于中国经济的模拟分析得出了三个基本结论:一是从政策规则的制定来看,宏观审慎更青睐简单清晰的规则,而不是复杂的多目标规则;二是从政策的协调搭配来看,基于宏观审慎的货币政策、信贷政策和金融监管政策通过合理的组合和搭配,不仅能更好地稳定经济和金融体系,而且可以有效降低单一政策所面临的多目标困境和政策负担;三是从政策的运用方向和力度来看,宏观审慎政策的协调搭配需要避免“政策冲突”和“政策叠加”问题,前者会削弱政策效果并增加政策实施的成本,而后者则可能导致经济系统以一种非预期的方式进行调整。
By implanting an endogenous financial system into the DSGE model based on china' s economic da- ta, this paper studies the coordination problems between major macroprudential policies, including monetary policy, credit policy and financial regulatory policies. The simulation analysis reached three basic conclusions. First, from the perspective of policy rules setting, macroprudential policies prefer simple and clear rules rather than complex rules with multi - objectives. Second, from the perspective of policy coordination, when the mac- roprudential oriented monetary policy, credit policy and financial regulatory policies are reasonably mixed and matched with each other, not only the economic and financial system will be better stabilized, but also the plight of multi - objective and policy burden faced by a single instrument will be largely alleviated. Third, for the use of policy direction and intensity, the coordination between macroprudential policies has to avoid the "policy conflict" and "policy overlay" problems. The former will weaken the policy effects and increase the cost of policy implementation, while the latter may lead to the adjustment of the economic system in an unex- pected way.