中文摘要：

根据广州地铁车辆轮对的磨耗数据,分析轮对磨耗和镟修的特点。针对踏面直径和轮缘厚度两个形面参数,基于高斯过程建立轮对磨耗的数据模型。根据地铁车辆轮对镟修要求,提出一种轮对镟修的控制限策略。在轮对磨耗模型的基础上,给出该镟修策略的蒙特卡罗仿真模型。然后利用蒙特卡罗仿真方法,以轮对期望使用寿命和期望镟修次数为指标,对不同的轮对镟修策略进行分析,从而实现轮对镟修策略的优化。结果表明：轮对轮缘厚度较大或较小时,轮缘磨损均较严重,而踏面直径的磨损速率和轮缘厚度不具有相关性;当轮缘厚度减少到27～28.5 mm时,通过镟修将轮缘厚度恢复到30 mm,这样的镟修策略能较好地延长轮对期望使用寿命,达到约13.2～15.3年。

英文摘要：

Based on the wheel wear data of Guangzhou Metro,this paper analyzes the characteristics of wheel wear and re-profiling at first.With the application of the theory of Gaussian processes,a new data-driven model of wheel wear is given in terms of the variation of wheel diameter and flange thickness.A control limit policy for the wheel re-profiling decision is also proposed.According to the wheel wear model,the Monte Carlo simulation model/procedure of the re-profiling strategy is described in detail.Utilizing the Monte Carlo simulation,this wheel re-profiling strategy is optimized in order to maximize the expected lifetime of wheel finally.The results indicate that wheel wear is higher when wheels have a thicker or thinner flange,and the decreasing rate of the wheel diameter is independent of the thickness of wheel flange.Furthermore,the better selection for the wheel re-profiling strategies is that wheels should be restored to 30 mm when the flange is worn down to 27～28.5 mm,which could extend the expected lifetime of wheels to 13.2～15.3 years.