中文摘要：

影响多年调节水库的期末蓄水位的因素有很多，主要有年初水位、未来1～3a入库径流量等。对于不同的水库，影响水库期末蓄水位的因素也不一样。以具有多年调节能力的狮子滩水库为研究对象，根据长序列运行资料分析影响该水库期末蓄水位的主要因素。考虑到目前水文和气象预报水平的限制，难以较准确地预报未来几年的来水过程，提出应用设计典型年组合，建立供水期来水频率与期末水位之间的线性关系来确定水库期末蓄水位的方法。结果表明，所得相关系数较高，具有一定的应用价值。

英文摘要：

There are many factors that affect the year-end water level of a multi-year regulating storage reservoir, such as year-start water level, runoff in the next one to three years and so on. Factors of different reservoirs are distinct. Based on the long-sequence data of the Shizitan Reservoir, a mutil-year regulating reservoir, this paper discusses the main factors affecting the reservoir＇s year- end water level. The method that establishes the liner relationship between the runoff frequency of supply period and the year-end water level to define the latter by the combination of design years is put forward, considering the forecast in the next few years of the runoff process can hardly be accurate because of the limitation of the hydrological and weather forecast level. The result shows that the correlation of the coefficient is high enough, which shows that this method is feasible.