中文摘要：

为解决动态环境下产品族复杂系统运行状态不确定性问题，提出了基于模糊软集和证据理论的产品族状态评价方法。从企业的工程设计、市场需求一经济、生产能力和运营管理四个方面进行分析，构建了产品族状态评价指标体系；在评价过程中，考虑各专家偏好应用模糊软集方法获得产品族状态评价四方面指标的权重值，利用证据理论对四个方面的指标数据进行证据合成推理；在此基础上，计算不同时期阶段的产品族状态指数并以不同时期阶段的指数差异来评估产品族运行状态。以小型轮装产品族为例验证了该方法的有效性。

英文摘要：

To solve the uncertainty on running state of complex product family system under dynamic environments, an evaluation method of product family state was proposed based on Fuzzy Soft Sets （FSS） and D-S theory. The e- valuation index system of product family running state was established from four aspects of engineering design, mar- ket demand-economy, production capacity and operations management. In the process of evaluation, the weights of four indexes were obtained with FSS by considering experts＇ preference, and the evidence from four aspects were combined and calculated according to D-S theory. On this basis, Product Family State Index （PFSI） in different pe- riods was obtained and the difference value of PFSI from two periods was used to evaluate the running state of prod- uct family. The effectiveness of proposed method was verified with case study of small size wheel loader family.