本文借鉴多国多部门投入产出模型的结构分解技术,通过静态结构分解技术将产业结构效应分解为乘数效应、反馈效应和溢出效应三部分.并利用投入产出表对2002年和2007年的中国51个产业的关联状态及其变化进行了详细分析。研究表明我国产业的溢出效应、乘数效应和反馈效应的重要性呈依次递减的特征。对于我国产业的发展而言.提升产业的自身发展能力。优化产业关联是推动我国产业转型的根本。针对产业关联效应的提升.本文也提出了产业融合发展的思路,并从创新的推动力、市场需求的拉动力、企业闾竞争合作的压力以及政府放松管制等方面阐述了产业融合发展需要解决的体制机制问题。
This paper analyzes the China's industrial structure by using the decomposition technique of multi-national and multi-sectoral input-output model. We divide the industrial structural effect into the multiplier effect, the feedback effect and the spillover effect by static decomposition technique, then using the data of input- output table for 2002 and 2007 we calculate these structural effects and analyze the state and changes of industrial linkages of China. Furthermore, we calculate the contribution of dynamic effects of industrial linkages by using dynamic structural decomposition technique and analyze the growth mechanisms of various industries. Studies have shown that the spillover effects, multiplier effects and feedback effects were followed by decreasing. The fundamental transformation of China's industry is to enhance the industry's self-development capacity and optimize the industrial linkages. This paper raises the idea that industry convergence is very important to enhance the effects of industrial linkages. Institutional mechanisms about the driving force of innovation, pulling power of market demand, the pressure of competition and cooperation between enterprises, government deregulation need to be solved.