中文摘要：

基于SITC两位数下61类商品进出口数据，利用自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）研究实际有效汇率变化对不同商品进出口的影响。主要结论是：第一，从影响范围看，汇率变化对出口商品影响种类要多于进口商品。第二，从影响程度看，出口商品对汇率变动的敏感系数大于进口商品。第三，使用61类商品的总合数据时，出现了“总合偏倚”现象。研究结论的意义在于，制定和实施差别化的产业政策，对汇率敏感度较大的商品，应给予优惠的税率和信贷政策。

英文摘要：

Using a sample of monthly import and export data from 61 industries in China SITC Commodity Groupings during the January 2002 - March 2010 period, we apply cointegration analysis To investigate the influence of real effective exchange rate on the import and export of different commodities. There are three main results. Firstly, exchange rate movements have influence on more catagories of export commodities than import. Secondly, the exchange rate sensitivity for exports is larger than imports. Thirdly, there is aggregation bias when using the aggregation data. Our results provide support for adopting differential industry policies. Preferential tax and credit policies should be implemented for commodities with high exchange rate sensitivity.