基于环境代用指标、观测数据和相关统计资料,从气候、水体、生态系统、陆表环境、人类活动影响和灾害风险6个方面,采用温度、降水、冰川、积雪、湖泊等26项指标内容,归纳了冷,暖、干,湿等60项指标特征,揭示了青藏高原过去2000年和现代环境变化的基本事实,重点评估了环境变化和人类活动影响,同时预估了未来100年环境的不同情景.本文所用资料全部来自公开发表的科学文献和省部级及以上的统计数据,是首次青藏高原环境变化科学评估的简要版本,体现了《青藏高原环境变化科学评估报告》的基本框架、指标体系和主要结论,反映了当今科学界对青藏高原环境变化的科学认知水平.
This study summarizes the Assessment Report on Environmental Changes over the Tibetan Plateau. In that report, a set of indicators under six categories---climate, bodies of water, ecosystem, land surface environment, effect of human activities, and hazard risk is used to depict past changes, present status, and future scenarios of the Tibetan Plateau environment. Similar to other assessments, that exercise deals with evaluating the existing scientific evidence (typically published in peer-reviewed journals) concerning a policy and/or relevant research issue in the scientific community, with involvement of other stakeholders such as policymakers and users of scientific information. Our summary of the report presents the framework and indicators used, the main findings, and future perspectives of the assessment. An overview of similar international assessments and lessons learned is also provided to view the assessment from policy-related and international perspectives.