中文摘要：

为更科学有效地预测3G定制手机的发展趋势，为运营商提供决策依据，本文将Bass模型引入到3G定制手机扩散研究中，结合3G定制手机扩散特性，构建了非恒定性附随扩散模型。通过对基本Bass模型、附随扩散模型干¨非恒定附随扩散模型进行实证分析和比较分析，研究得出3G定制手机业务的非恒定性附随扩散模型的曲线拟合效果最好，适合作3G定制手机用户扩散的预测；同时，研究得出3G定制手机业务的主要扩散动力是内部影响凶素，用户受口碑影响较大。因此，3G定制手机业务扩散的主要影响因素来自己采用3G定制手机的用户对潜在用户的口碑影响。

英文摘要：

To more scientifically and effectively predict tile development trend of customized 3G mobile phone and provide decision-making basis for operators, this paper introduces Bass model to the diffusion study on cus- tomized 3G mobile phone, and combining the diffusion properties of customized 3G mobile phone, builds the variable contingent diffusion model. Through empirical analysis and comparative analysis of Bass model, contin- gent diffusion model and variable contingent diffusion model, this paper discovers that the curve fitting effect of variable contingent diffusion model is the best for customized 3G mobile phone business, and variable contingent diffusion model is suitable for predication of customized 3G mobile phone users. Meanwhile, it is found that ma- jor diffusion motivation of customized 3G mobile phone is internal factors, and users are affected greatly by word of mouth. Therefore, major influencing factor of customized 3G mobile phone business diffusion is from word ef mouth of the existing users on potential ones.