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中文摘要：
为检验全球电离层闪烁模型（GISM）在中国低纬地区预测的准确性，根据2011年7月至2012年6月期间中国低纬地区三个观测站记录的GPSL1频点的电离层闪烁数据，对GISM模型的预测结果进行了分析．研究表明，在太阳活动高年，该模型能够反映出中国低纬地区闪烁的主要特征．模型预测的闪烁开始时间与观测结果较为一致，而结束时间滞后观测值约1h；模型预测的低纬地区闪烁强度峰值与观测结果基本一致，而在相同累积概率条件下，模型预测的闪烁强度则高于观测值；模型显示闪烁发生概率和闪烁强度随纬度的增加而减小，这一结果与观测结果一致．
英文摘要：
A forecast of ionospheric scintillations can provide the opportunity for radio commnni- cation system to take appropriate action to mitigate the effects and optimize service. The Global Ionospheric Scintillation Model （GISM） by Beniguel was developed to forecast the global ionospheric scintillation condition. To check the prediction accuracy of the model at low latitude in China, this paper compares the model predictions with observed L-band ionospheric scintillation data at three low-latitude stations in China from July 2011 to June 2012. The results show that the model pre- dictions had a good correlation with the statistical characteristics of the scintillation during solar maximum. The predicted beginning time of the scintillation agreed with measurements in general, while the end time was delayed for about an hour. As to the maximum scintillation intensity, the predictions could reproduce the measurements fairly well. Under the same cumulate probability condition, the model had somewhat higher prediction precision for each given scintillation intensity. The predicted percentage of occurrence and intensity of scintillation show gradual decrease versus latitude, which is consistence with measurement.
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