中文摘要：

提出一种基于无迹变换的随机潮流计算方法,比较对称采样、最小偏度单形采样和超球体单形采样3种无迹变换策略的实现思路和计算效果,讨论随机变量不同的相关程度对随机潮流分布的影响。利用无迹变换方法将潮流的随机性分析问题转换为少量样本点的确定性潮流计算,可较全面捕获非线性系统的统计信息,而直接方便地处理具有相关关系的随机变量。IEEE30、IEEE118和IEEE300节点标准系统的计算结果表明：对称采样策略的无迹变换方法具有较高的数值稳定性,更适用于大规模电力系统随机潮流的求解,与蒙特卡洛模拟相比,其计算速度可提高数十倍,且相对误差可低至0.5%。

英文摘要：

A method of SPF（Stochastic Power Flow） calculation based on UT（Unscented Transform） is proposed. Three UT strategies,respectively based on symmetric sampling,minimal skew simplex sampling and spherical simplex sampling,are compared in the implementation concept and computational effectiveness. The effect of correlation between stochastic variables on the distribution of SPF is discussed. The UT is applied to convert the SPF calculation into the deterministic power flow calculation based on a small amount of sampling points,which can fully capture the statistical parameters of nonlinear system as well as directly and easily handle the correlated stochastic variables. The calculative results of standard IEEE 30-,118-and 300-bus systems show that,the UT strategy based on symmetric sampling has higher numerical stability,it is more suitable for the SPF calculation of large-scale power system,its relative error is reduced to 0.5 % and its calculation speed is several ten-times quicker than that of the Monte Carlo simulation.