中文摘要：

在传统密闭道路集散波模型的基础上,提出了考虑汇入汇出匝道及衔接道路的路网事件辐射范围预测模型.该模型根据事件持续时间各阶段产生的集散波传播参数的不同,描述了在各列集散波相互作用下,事件造成的偶发性交通拥堵对路网范围交通流辐射影响的六种情况,并推导出了每种情况下的影响长度计算公式.然后,以面向对象的编程思路,构造了集散波类并模拟集散波在路网中的辐射过程,并通过渲染GIS地图来展示事件辐射态势.最后,利用AIMSUN交通仿真技术,检验了辐射预测模型的有效性,并进行了预测误差的致因分析.

英文摘要：

Prediction model of freeway network incident radiation scope with a consideration of on-off ramp was proposed based on traditional closed segment wave models.According to the different waves resulted from each phase of incident duration,six cases of freeway network incident radiation scope were analyzed and formulated,which could depict the interaction among traffic waves well.Then the traffic-wave class was created by using object-oriented programming to simulate the whole processing of incident wave radiation in the freeway network,and GIS map was played up to show the situation of radiation scope.Finally,the AIMSUN simulation test result indicates that this network radiation prediction model can represent actual incident influence range when the initial traffic volume is not extremely high,and its error analysis is carried out.