文章利用深交所上市公司信息披露考评数据,考察了公司信息披露质量对股价崩盘风险的影响,以及作为信息中介的证券分析师所发挥的作用。研究发现,公司信息披露质量与股价崩盘风险显著负相关,且这一结果主要是由信息披露质量下降引起股价崩盘风险增加所致,而信息披露质量提高对股价崩盘风险的缓解作用不明显。此外,文章发现良好的信息披露质量能够显著降低分析师的预测误差,而较低的预测误差可进一步缓解股价崩盘风险,这说明分析师预测活动在信息披露质量与股价崩盘风险之间起中介作用。文章的研究对于认识分析师在资本市场中的作用,以及提高信息披露质量、降低股价崩盘风险、促进资本市场平稳发展具有重要的理论与现实意义。
Using the scoring data concerning information disclosure in companies listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange, this paper examines the effect of information disclosure qual- ity on the stock price crash risk, and the role of securities analysts as information interme- diary. It arrives at the empirical results that the quality of information disclosure is nega- tively associated with its future stock price crash risk, and the result is driven by the in- crease in stock price crash risk owing to the reduction in information disclosure quality, but the role of the increase in information disclosure quality in alleviating stock price crash is not obvious. In addition, it finds that sound information disclosure quality can significantly reduce the forecast errors of analysts, and lower forecast errors can further alleviate stock price crash risk, supporting the mediating role of analyst forecast activities in the relation- ship between information disclosure quality and stock price crash risk. It has important theoretical and real significance to the understanding of the role in analysts in capital mar- ket and how to improve information disclosure quality, reduce stock price crash risk and advance the stable development of capital market.