中文摘要：

利用动力学拟合法,以HY-2A卫星为例分析不同拟合区间对预报不同弧长的轨道精度的影响。基于CNES提供的事后精密星历和采用非差简化动力学方法获得的厘米级快速轨道两种产品,进行卫星轨道预报。结果表明：采用24 h和12 h拟合区间分别预报12 h轨道时,其3DRMS优于6 dm;当预报24 h轨道时,3DRMS优于1 m。

英文摘要：

The accuracy of different fitting intervals on the predicted orbit of different arc lengths was analyzed by using the dynamic fitting method and taken HY-2A satellite as an example. According to two orbit products,one was the precise orbit obtained by CNES and the other was rapid orbit computed by adopting zero-different reduced dynamic method,obtaining the precise predicted orbit. By the results,we can get that the 3DRMS is near 6 dm by using 12 h or 24 h fitting orbit to forecast 12 h arc; the 3DRMS is near 1 m when forecasting 24 h arc.