基于1998年1季度~2011年2季度数据,通过施加短期约束的结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),本文比较了四类代表性价格水平波动对我国宏观经济增长稳定性的影响特点。研究表明:不同价格水平波动对我国宏观经济增长的稳定性呈现出了明显的差异性。其中,房地产和消费价格水平的冲击影响作用最明显。研究认为,在进一步以稳定经济增长为目标的货币政策调控中,相对股价和能源价格水平而言,对房地产和一般消费价格水平的更多关注仍然是最重要的。
According to the data from first quarter of 1998 to the second quarter of 2011, using a SVAR model imposed with a short-term constraint is to analyze the influence of four types of price fluctuation on microeconomic growth The results show that different types of price fluctuation have significant difference in the stability of microeeonomic growth, of which real estate and consumer price level have great impact on the stability. In the monetary policies adjustment for further stabilizing economic growth, it is very important to focus on the real estate and general consumer price in comparison with stock price and energy price level.