中文摘要：

论文结合石油项目的具体特征，在价格不确定条件下研究石油开发投资决策背后的内在机制与路径。运用实物期权方法构建石油项目投资评估与决策模型，详细讨论各种不确定因素对石油项目投资价值与油价阈值的影响。在此基础上讨论了对石油价格首次达到阈值的期望时间与概率，对于企业把握投资时机具有重要的参考价值。

英文摘要：

Taking into consideration of definite characteristics petroleum project, the paper analy- zes the implicit mechanism and path within petroleum investment decision process under condi- tions of price uncertainty. Then, the paper adopts the real options approach and builds the valua- tion and decision models on the petroleum project in which different factors＇ influence on the pro- ject value and optimal investment threshold are discussed in detail. And further, this paper intro- duces the concept of first hitting time, which is the time of petroleum price first triggering the in- vestment threshold, and by using numerical method, investigates how the changes of different parameter values affect the hitting time and investment probability. To calculate the first hitting time is helpful to companies＇ grasp of investment time and has important management implica- tion.