中文摘要：

行程时间可靠性是影响出行者出行选择行为的重要因素,其定义包括概率型时间可靠性和方差型时间可靠性两类。时间可靠性的定义差异导致了时间可靠性价值的评价结果莫衷一是。依据概率型时间可靠性的计算方法、方差型的时间可靠性效用估计方法,建立出行者在考虑最佳出发时间情形下的效用最大化函数,并基于效用等价原理,分析这两种时间可靠性效用等价问题。利用广州市中山路部分路段的行程时间面板数据,在考虑行程时间均值和方差依赖出发时间的情形下,估计该路段一天中不同时刻的时间可靠性成本占出行时间成本的比重。实证结果表明：这两类时间可靠性在一天中不同时段具有不同的价值：在交通拥挤时段,这两类时间可靠性均拥有更高的价值,反之则低;当概率型的时间可靠性认定阈值大致为平均行程时间的1.2倍时,方差型时间可靠性与概率型时间可靠性之间大致呈现线性关系,这为概率型时间可靠性价值估计提供了研究依据。

英文摘要：

Travel time reliability is an important factor affecting travelers＇ choice behavior,whose definition includes probabilistic-type travel time reliability and variance-type travel time reliability.The definition differences between both travel time reliability leads to inexplicit evaluation results on value of time reliability.The paper presents probabilistic-type reliability calculation method and variance-type time reliability utility estimating method,and establishes utility maximization function of travelers considering best departure time.Utility equivalence of both reliabilities is analyzed based on utility equivalence principle.Finally,based on the travel time panel data of Guangzhou ZhongShan road,the proportions of travel time reliability to the travel time cost at the time of a day is estimated under condition of the travel time mean and standard deviation concern departure time.The empirical results show that values of travel time reliability with different time of a day are different：higher value of travel time reliability in rush hour,and vice versa low;When threshold of probabilistic time reliability is roughly set 1.2times the average travel time,there are roughly linear relationship between probabilistic travel time reliability and variance-type travel time reliability,which provides the study basis for the estimation of probabilistic travel time reliability value.