中文摘要：

现有的风险研究多集中于对可识别的风险因素的量化和管理上,涉及复杂系统中风险的影响范围及控制力度的研究较少,而对输配电系统风险的研究几乎没有。采用混沌学的分形理论对输配电系统的复杂结构进行表述,并把这个系统分为3个等级,实行差别决策。引入分割多目标方法求解多个策略在这3个等级中的条件期望值,并进行了输配电系统风险管理的实例计算,结果与理性预期相符,说明分形理论与分割多目标方法的结合适用于输配电系统的风险决策。

英文摘要：

Currently risk researches mostly focus on the quantification and management of identifiable risk factors,while less attention has been attached to the studies involving influence range and control strength of risk in complex systems,and more unfortunately,the risk research for power transmission and distribution system has almost been ignored.In this paper,fractal theory was adopted to describe the complex structure of power transmission and distribution system,and the system was divided into three levels for distinctive risk decision.Then,the Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Method（PMRM） was introduced to calculate the conditional expectation value of several strategies in the three levels which was treated as decision-making basis for risk management.Finally,the method was applied to an empirical example and the calculations met with the rational expectations.The results indicate that the combination of fractal theory and PMRM can properly deal with the risk decision in power transmission and distribution system.