本文采用1978—2010年省级数据,运用动态面板模型考察了政府民生支出对东、中、西部地区城乡居民消费的影响,研究表明改革开放以来民生支出对我国居民消费具有明显的挤入作用,但其政策效应存在着的地区和城乡差异。造成这种差异的原因在于,我国的经济体制改革使得城乡居民具有明显的预防性储蓄动机,其中支出不确定性对农村居民消费支出的负向影响大于城镇居民。
In this paper,by using China' s provincial panel data from 1978 to 2010, we have done empirical analysis on the dynamic effect of government expenditure on livelihood on resident consumption demand. The result shows that government expenditure on livelihood has a positive correlation with resident consumption demand. But the effects of policy are different between urban and rural residents and the impacts vary with the region. The reason is that both urban and rural residents have precautionary motives in China. And the uncertainty of expenditure has greater negative effect on rural than urban residents.