中文摘要：

本文从干旱指数蒸发率函数出发，以HadCM3 GCM对降水和温度的模拟结果为基础，在IPCC不同发展情景下，分析了未来近100年内黄河流域天然径流量的变化趋势。研究结果表明，在不同气候变化情景下，多年平均年径流量的变化随着区域的不同而有显著差异，其变化幅度在-48.0％～203．0％之间。全球气候变化引起的多年平均天然径流量的变化从东向西逐渐减小。就黄河流域而言，2006～2035年、2036～2065年、2066～2095年A2情景下（人口快速增长、经济发展缓慢）多年平均天然径流量的变化量分别为5．0％、11．7％、8．1％，B2情景下（强调社会技术创新）相应的变化分别为7．2％、-3．1％、2．6％。

英文摘要：

Water scarcity is one of the most challenging issues in natural resources at present and in future, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In the Yellow River Basin, rapid growths of population, urbanization, and industrialization have caused ever-increasing competition for water. Any kind of changes in water resource caused by global climate change will have significant implications to such a water shortage basin. This study was conducted to evaluate the potential effects of global climate change on the mean natural annual runoff in the Yellow River Basin under different climatic scenarios of HadCM3 GCM based on the evaporation ratio function of the aridity index, which considers both climate and soil surface characteristics. Six sub-basins were divided based on the runoff producing properties. The mean precipitation and evaporation of 1961-1990 of each sub-basin were obtained based on 56 stations within and around the Yellow River Basin. The future changes in climate were the relative changes between baseline （1961--1990） and different periods （2006--2035, 2036--2065, 2066--2095） generated by GCM model. The delta change method was to get the climate change for each station. Simulations using HadCM3 A2 and B2 scenarios indicated that the changes in the range of -48.0% to more than 203%. off decreased from east to west. For the annual runoff varied from region to region within In general, the potential changes in annual runoff decreased from east to west.For the Yellow River Basin, the mean annual runoff increased up to 5.0%, 11.7 %, and 8. 1% for the A2 scenario, and the changes were 7.2 %, -3.1%, and 2. 6% for B2 scenario by the year of 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively.