利用1993—2012年20年间《重庆统计年鉴》的数据,构建了三峡库区农村消费与经济增长关系的结构方程模型。结果表明:三峡库区农民消费对经济增长具有一定贡献,但是贡献很有限,其中,库区农民生活消费对经济增长的贡献最大,其路径系数为0.34;农民生产消费的贡献次之,其路径系数为0.25;农民文教娱乐消费的贡献最小,其路径系数为0.13。由此提出如下建议:大力提高库区农民的收入水平,增强农民的消费能力;大力开发农村生活资料市场;加大农业基础设施建设;引导农民树立良好的消费习惯;完善库区农村社会保障制度。
The authors of this paper have constructed a structural equation model of rural con- sumption and economic growth in Three Gorges Reservoir area, based on 20 years' data from 1993 to 2012 in Chongqing Statistical Yearbooks. The results show that the contributions of the rural consumption in Three Gorges Reservoir area are quite limited, among which the contribution of the farmers' everyday consumption is the greatest, its path coefficient being 0. 34; that of farmers~ production consumption comes second, its path coefficient being 0.25; and that of farm- ers' education and entertainment consumption is the smallest, its path coefficient being 0. 13; Accordingly, the authors make suggestions as follows: to raise the income level of farmers in the reservoir area, to increase the farmers' consumption ability; to develop the rural living material market,to build up agricultural infrastructure,to guide farmers to get rid of bad spending habits, and to perfect the rural social security system of reservoir area.