汇率传递是其影响经济的重要渠道之一,具有重要的理论和现实意义。从人民币汇率制度变迁的视角,选取1997年1月至2012年9月期间为样本期,采用E—G两步法分析人民币汇率对国内价格CPI的传递效应。实证发现,2005年7月汇改后,人民币汇率对CPI的传递效应存在结构性变化,汇率制度的变迁降低了传递效应,并对实证结果提出相应解释。
This paper analyses RMB exchange rate' s pass-through to China' s CPI to find whether the pass-through has been changed after the exchange rate reform policy begun in July, 2005. By using the OLS model and ECM model, the paper finds the pass-through is incomplete. Moreover, by using dum- my variable, the paper also finds the pass-through effect has reduced. At the end of the paper, some suggestions are proposed.