中文摘要：

为了分析沥青路面使用性能的发展变化趋势,得出影响沥青路面使用性能的主要因素及规律。根据多种预测模型对沥青路面使用性能指数的预测结果,利用熵权组合预测理论对预测结果进行综合,得到路面使用性能的变化趋势。同时,利用变精度粗糙模糊集构建沥青路面使用性能评价模糊决策体系,对使用性能与其影响因素的关系进行概率决策分析,得到了概率决策规则。结果表明：水土、材料及施工是影响沥青路面使用性能的主要影响因素,而得到的概率决策规则的置信度也较高。

英文摘要：

In order to analyze the developing trend of asphalt pavement performance,and get the main influencing factors and rule of asphalt pavement performance,according to the prediction results of asphalt pavement performance indexes by various prediction models,entropy weight combination forecast theory is applied to compose the predict results, and the developing trend of asphalt pavement performance is obtained. Meanwhile,the variable precision rough fuzzy set model is applied to construct the fuzzy decisionmaking system for asphalt pavement performance evaluation,the probabilistic decision-making analysis on relationships between asphalt pavement performance and its influencing factors are performed,and the probability decision-making rules are obtained. It shows that drainage,materials and construction of asphalt pavement are the main influencing factors of asphalt pavement performance,and the obtained confidence level of probability decision-making rules is higher.