中文摘要：

为了分析中稻花期高温的变化及其对中稻产量的影响,利用1991-2005年气象统计数据及对7个省份中稻生产数据的描述性统计分析,建立了中稻生产定量分析函数模型,每个方程中除了包含传统的生产投入变量、技术进步变量等外,还分别包含7种类型的气温变量。结果表明,21世纪以来,长江流域中稻花期的极端高温呈升高趋势,并伴随较大幅度的波动,且各地区增长幅度存在较大差异;当极端高温处于35℃到39℃之间,中稻的平均产量与35℃以下情况无显著差异,但当极端高温达39℃以上时,平均产量会显著降低13%。

英文摘要：

The main target of the paper is exploiting the change of the maximum temperature during midseason rice flowering period, and its impact on the yield of midseason rice. Based on the statistical data on weather in 7 provinces during 15 years, the midseason rice function models are built up, with temperature variables included. Our result shows that the maximum temperatures during midseason rice flowering periods have increasing trend with a substantial fluctuation, with great differences among regions. When the maximum temperature is between 35℃ to 39℃, the average yield of midseason rice will not change significantly, but if the maximum temperature is above 39℃, the average yield of mid-season rice will decrease by 13 percent.