根据近30年来,我国105°E以东(包括大陆架)Ms≥5.7级地震的震前逐月地温和降水演变特征,可以归纳出震前地气系统演变的共同特征:(1)可将“干热面积”最大月定为孕震3步曲的第一步.未来震级与干热面积有好的相关,最干点的经纬度与震中经纬度有一定的相关;(2)从地温、降水应变波出现到“正多负少”规则恢复可以作为孕震第二步的开始;(3)降水经向波长开始明显变长(甚至变为无限长),可称为孕震第三步,此时距地震发生仅剩0~2个月的时间.外核对流上升体(孕震体)对壳幔层顶托作用的地震成因说,可以较好地解释上述观测事实.
To understand the relationship between atmosphere and lithosphere system deeply, we analyzed data of monthly ground temperature and precipitation and summarized common features of the evolution of climate system before the earthquake with Ms≥ 5.7 over the past 30 years which occurred in the 105°E east of China. The main statistical results are: (1) The first stage of the earthquake gestation is the month with the maximum value of abnormal high soil temperature area. The following magnitude of earthquake is well related with the abnormal high soil temperature area. The driest position has some relationship with the epicenter. (2) The second stage starts from the appearance of the fluctuation in both the oil temperature and precipitation fields to the restoration of the "more rainfall when positive change of soil temperature and less when negative" rule. (3) The wavelengths of precipitation stress wave along longitude become longer (or even become infinite) is the third stage in the 0 to 2 months before earthquake. A hypothesis is proposed on the mechanism of strong earthquake can well explain the observed phenomenon: There is a kind of unstable uplifting Benard convection in outer layer of the earth core. The uplifting actions push up the crust and the mantle.