随着国民经济的快速发展,工业生产总值的不断增长,非故意生产多氯联苯可能是导致其大气中浓度持续升高的主要来源。基于此,本研究确定我国非故意生产多氯联苯的主要排放源为水泥行业、钢铁烧结、电炉炼钢、初级铜冶炼、初级铅冶炼、初级锌冶炼及热电站(煤),并根据不同排放源的排放因子运用不同的计算方法确定评价指标的权重,然后应用TOPSIS模型对我国各省区非故意生产多氯联苯的排放污染状况进行综合评价。研究结果表明,应用基于排放因子的排放量法确定评价指标权重的TOPSIS法能够客观准确的对污染状况进行评价。经相关性分析得出,我国各省区非故意生产多氯联苯综合污染状况与GDP显著相关,R=0.831,P〈0.0001。运用TOTSIS模型的评价结果有效可行,可为编制非故意生产多氯联苯排放清单地区分配的合理化提供可靠依据,并可对持久性有机污染物的大气污染控制政策及措施的制定提供参考依据。
With rapidly development of economy and industries, the unintentional produced PCBs (UP-PCBs) become the main source of air pollution. It is investigated the emission sources of UP-PCBs from main emission sources, including thermal power stations, cement kilns, sinter plants in the iron and steel industries, primary copper, lead and zinc smelting. According to emission factors of different emission sources the weights of different evaluation index that was adopted by different methods were calculated, and the TOPSIS model was used to assess the contamination conditions of UP-PCBs in different provinces in China, and significant correlation was found between contamination discharge and GDP, R = 0. 831 ,P 〈 0. 000 1. The results showed that the method of emission amount based on emission factors can effectively assess the comprehensive contamination conditions. The assessment results obtained by application of the TOPSIS model can provide reliable basis for compiling emission inventories of UPPCBs in different region in China, and also provide a reference basis for making decision for controlling policies and measures on air pollution of persistent organic pollutants.