中文摘要：

利用搜索引擎中的关键词搜索数据构建了网络消费者信心指数（网络 CCI）,以我国消费者价格指数（CPI）作为测度物价波动的量化指标,首先分别定量描述网络 CCI 和 CPI 序列,而后利用双阶段马尔科夫区制转移模型,识别和分析我国网络消费者信心和物价波动动态过程中的内生转移机制。结果表明,网络CCI 增长率比 CPI 增长率波动性更强。就总体发展趋势而言,CPI 保持低速增长的可能性较大,网络 CCI仍将处于快速增长阶段的可能性相对较大。对网络 CCI 这个指数未来的预测会表现出这样的情况：当它保持着较高的增长率时,可能会存在较强波动性；相反,如果网络 CCI 维持较低的增长率时,存在较弱的波动性。

英文摘要：

The study constructs a web consumer confidence index（web CCI）based on the web search volume,and measures price fluctuation by consumer price index（CPI）.First,we describe the web CCI and CPI,and then we identify and analyze the internal switching mechanisms in the dynamic fluctuation of the two series with a two-stage Markov regime switching model.The results show that the growth rate of web CCI is more fluctuant than the growth rate of CPI.In terms of overall trends, CPI turns to increase with low speed while web CCI will increase with high speed. Especially,there will be more volatility if web CCI increases rapidly,and there will be less volatility if web CCI increase with a lower speed.