中文摘要：

通过研究Hurst指数随时问变化曲线的特性，提出了一种计算和判断混沌时间序列平均最大“记忆”长度（“平均循环周期”）的方法。并应用于对飞机完好率时间序列数据的时滞性实证分析，分析结果得到了有关专家的认可。为进一步的评价分析奠定了基础。

英文摘要：

By studying the feature of the curve of the Hurst exponent changing with the time, a method of calculating anti judging the average ＂memorial＂ range of the chaotic time series, the mean period, is presented in this paper. When the curve is drawn according to the 7 steps give in the paper, you may find that there will be a peak valuc on the curve. The time point corresponding to this peak should be the mean period of the time series. Some resuits of the aircraft intactness ratio data by using this method have been approved by the related experts and can surely be used for the ulterior evaluation of the data.