地震区划图是工程设防的重要依据,是防震减灾过程中的一项基础工作.目前全球大震发震频次相对较高,超设防烈度问题已凸显.从地震区划图的制定基础出发,讨论了影响地震区划的基础因素,分析了超设防烈度发生的主要原因;基于概率地震危险性分析方法编制的地震区划图,探讨了概率地震危险性分析方法的假设模型,指出地震危险性分析应在揭示地震发生机制的基础上合理确定地震预测模型;地震危险性分析方法应采用概率地震危险性分析与确定地震动相结合;地震区划图应以地震危险性分析结果与建筑物抗倒塌易损性分析结果为依据,并充分考虑大震和特大地震的发生概率,编制一致倒塌水准的地震区划图,提供合理的抗倒塌设防标准.
Seismic zonation map is an important basis for seismic fortification and a basic work in the process of earthquake resistance and disaster mitigation.As major earthquakes occur frequently worldwide,the phenomena of actual intensity beyond the fortification intensity become highlighted.Basic factors affecting the seismic zoning and main reasons for actual intensity beyond the fortification intensity are discussed in this paper on writing the seismic zoning map.Models of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method on which seismic zonation map is compiled are also discussed.It comes to a conclusion that reasonable prediction model of seismic hazard analysis should be put forward on the basis of mechanism of the earthquake.What is more,probabilistic seismic risk method and deterministic seismic oscillation should be combined in the process seismic hazard analysis.Considering the probability of major earthquakes,the uniform collapse standard seismic zoning map should be compiled on the result of seismic hazard analysis method and resisting collapse analysis,which can provide reasonable seismic fortification.