中文摘要：

为使产品技术成熟度预测的应用更加有效和广泛，结合国内外研究状况，提出了基于文本挖掘技术的产品技术成熟度预测方法。该方法应用文本挖掘技术挖掘隐含于专利数据库中内在的、客观的、定量的信息，引入技术新颖度度量函数量化技术的新颖程度，评价专利质量；同时，以专利维持成本反应专利的获利情况，并结合专利数量作为预测指标，进行产品技术成熟度预测。阐述了应用该方法进行预测的具体步骤，预测了我国光通信技术的成熟度情况，实验结果显示了该方法的有效性。

英文摘要：

To apply Technology Maturity （TM） of product forecasting effectively and widely, in combination with related research status home and abroad, an approach for TM forecasting based on text-mining was proposed. This approach applied text-mining technique to extract the inherent, objective and quantitative information hidden in patent database. Technology novelty measurement function was defined firstly to quantify the novelty degree about some special technology to evaluate patent quality. Renewal fees which were expected to reflect profits and patent number were also used as forecasting indexes besides technology novelty degree. Concrete application steps of the approach were discussed. An empirical illustration about optical communication technology in China was forecasted, and results demonstrated the effectiveness of the approach.