中文摘要：

本文基于三大产业和居民生活部门的12种能源消费量数据,较全面地测算了1995—2008年浙江省碳排放量,建立了碳排放驱动因素分解模型,将碳排放的驱动因素分解为能源强度、结构调整、经济发展和人口规模等四大类效应,并采用对数平均权重分解法（LMDI）测算了各类效应对碳排放量的贡献值、变化趋势及相互作用机理。研究结果表明,1995—2008年,浙江省碳排放量呈现不断上升的趋势;经济发展和人口规模对碳排放的正向驱动效应远超过能源强度和结构调整产生的负向驱动效应。本文同时测算出浙江已跨越了碳排放强度的高峰阶段,但仍处于碳排放强度高峰迈向人均碳排放量高峰的阶段。为缩短不同碳排放高峰的跨越时间,降低高峰峰值,本文提出了加快低碳经济发展的相关政策建议。

英文摘要：

This paper estimated carbon emissions from 1995 to 2008 in Zhejiang province based on 12 kinds of energy consumption data in the three main industries and residents＇ sector.This paper built the decomposition model of carbon emissions＇ driving factors and decomposed the driving factors into energy intensity,structure adjustment,economic development and population size.In this paper,the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method was used to measure and calculate the factors＇ contributions to the growth of carbon emissions,variation tendency and interaction mechanism.The conclusions are as follows： ①The carbon emissions present a sustainable ascending trend in Zhejiang.②The positive effect of economic development and population size on carbon emissions is much larger than the negative effect of energy intensity and structure adjustment.③ The level of carbon emission in Zhejiang has stepped across the summit of the carbon emissions intensity,but still at the phase between the summits of carbon emissions intensity and per capita carbon emissions.To shorten the spanning period of the different summits of carbon emissions,to decline the peak value,this paper proposed several policy suggestions on how to accelerate carbon economic development.