利用海口站1961~2006年高空地面观测资料,分析了琼州海峡沿岸雾的气候统计特征。结果表明:琼州海峡沿岸雾目的年际变化呈现了显著的减少趋势。20世纪70年代初期和90年代初期为雾日减少的两个气候突变期。雾日减少与气候变暖密切相关,夜间最低温度升高是引起海峡雾日减少的主要原因。琼州海峡沿岸雾多出现在冬春季节,一天中出现雾的峰值时间为06:00~07:00,消散峰值时间为08:OO~09:00。利用1987~2006年NCEP再分析资料,总结了产生琼州海峡沿岸雾的3种天气形势,根据雾的类型提出了相应的预报指标。
The climatic statistical characteristics of foggy weather along the Qiongzhou Strait coast are analyzed by using the surface observation and radiosonde data of Haikou Station from 1961 to 2006. The result shows that as far as long-term trend are concerned, the foggy days along the Qiongzhou Strait coast show a significant linear decrease trend, and the two climatic abrupt decrease periods are the early 1970s and the early 1990s. The fog days have good negative relation with diurnal minimum temperature; that is, the climate warming is the main reason for fog decrease. Fogs form more frequently in winter and spring, appearing from 06:00 to 07:00 in the morning and disappearing 1 to 2 hours later. Based on the reanalysis of data from NCEP from 1987 to 2006, three weather patterns of fog along the Qiongzhou Strait are summed up and forecasting indexes are put forward as well.