中文摘要：

针对信息缺失的情形,文章研究了仅知部分市场需求信息下,制造商的生产决策对零售商、制造商的最优决策以及供应链系统绩效和效率的影响。研究发现,需求的期望对供应链绩效的影响远大于方差对供应链绩效的影响。当需求的方差大于零时,供应链的效率会随着需求期望的增加而逼近但不能达到75%;只有方差为零时,供应链的效率才能够达到确定性需求下、线性需求函数的供应链效率。

英文摘要：

In view of the lack of information,this paper studies the effect of production decision of the manufacturer on the retaliler and the manufacturer＇s optimal deeisions,and the performance and efficiency of the supply chain system.This study finds that the influence of demand expectation on supply chain performance is bigger than that of the variance.When the variance of demand is bigger than zero, the efficiency of the supply chain will increase and be close to but less than 75%. And only the variance is equal to zero, the value of the supply chain efficiency can reach the supply chain efficiency under the condition of deterministic demand and linear de-mand function.