中文摘要：

通过发展土地系统结构变化模型（DLS模型），以黄淮海平原为典型区，探索1988～2000年土地系统结构变化规律、驱动机理，模拟黄淮海平原不同情景下土地系统结构变化的可能趋势。

英文摘要：

The dynamic changes of land system in Huang - Huai - Hai Plain between 1988 and 2000 were researched in this paper. Spatial dominance econometric model was estabilished on 1 km cell to quantificafionally analyze the driving-force for the dynamic change mechanism of land system, such as natural, social and economic factors. The future dynamic changes of land system in Huang - Huai - Hai Plain on each 1 km cell during 2000 to 2020 were stimulated by combining the dynamic changes of land system on each 1 km cell with different situations. The research indicated that the dynamic changes of land system structure changed mainly from the cultivated areas to building areas and industrial areas, and forest areas increased during this period. Although the revolutions of land system structure were different during 2000 to 2020 with the different referrence standard, ecological protection and economic development, the primary dynamic changes of land system structure were that the increase of building land areas with the decline cuhivaled land areas and the increase of woodlands.