中文摘要：

文章对国内外新兴技术未来产业影响力的分析方法进行了整理和综评,提出了评价新兴技术未来产业影响力的三大关键问题,即：确定影响因素、建立指标体系和搜集研究数据,并通过对新兴技术未来产业影响力研究所存在的过分依赖专家经验、缺乏有力的数据分析支持、缺乏对动态性影响因素的考虑现状问题分析,提出了通过扩宽数据来源、融合数学理论方法和开发实时技术评价信息系统来解决问题的思路。

英文摘要：

The accurate evaluation to future industry influence of emerging technologies will be very meaningful for the future development of the economy and technology of a country.The analytical methods to future industry influence of emerging technologies are summarized and the current state of this field is introduced and evaluated.And then three key issues of evaluating the future industry influence of emerging technologies are proposed： to determine the effects of factors;to establish index system,and to collect research data.Some problems in this field are pointed out.Meanwhile,the way of solving these problems are provided from three aspects.That is,the first is to widen the source of data.The second is to combine many mathematical theories and the third is to develop the real-time information system of technology evaluation.We hope this work can provide references for constructing an effective method and mechanism in evaluating the future industry influence of emerging technologies.