中文摘要：

矿井断裂构造带滞后突水是威胁煤矿深部开采的主要水害类型。基于流–固耦合理论,提出弹塑性应变–渗流耦合、流变–渗流耦合及变参数流变–渗流耦合3种模拟评价模型。将断层破碎带物质等效为连续介质模型,材料本构模型分别采用弹塑性模型和流变模型,应用FLAC3D软件,对上述3种评价模型进行数值模拟,结果表明弹塑性应变–渗流耦合模拟结果在某些情况下可以适用;流变–渗流耦合模拟结果最接近实际;渗透性可变的条件下变参数流变–渗流耦合对渗流参数变化机制的解释最好。以流变–渗流耦合模拟结果为例,最危险滞后突水可能发生时间得以确定,在模拟开采的不同阶段,岩石巷道附近（即模型8#点处）分别产生3.26,3.63,3.77 MPa的最高水压,对应滞后时间分别为15,131,546 d。

英文摘要：

The lagging water-inrush near mine fault belt is the main type of water damage threatening the deep coal mining.Based on the flow-solid coupling theory,three types of simulation model including the elasticplastic strain-seepage coupling model,the rheology-seepage coupling model and the variable parameter rheology-seepage coupling model were proposed.Regarding the materials of fault zone as equivalent continuum model,using elasticplastic model and rheological model as material constitutive model respectively,a numerical simulation was carried by using FLAC3D.The results show that the simulation of the elasticplastic strain-seepage coupling can be applied to some circumstances;the rheology-seepage coupling is the closest to reality;under the condition of the variable permeability,the variable parameter rheology-seepage coupling gives the best explanation to the mechanism of permeability parameters changing.Taking the rheology-seepage coupling model for example,the most dangerous time occurring possible lagging water-inrush can be identified better.In the three mining stages simulated,the highest water pressures of 3.26,3.63,3.77 MPa are generated separately near rock roadway,i.e.,at the location of model observation point #8,corresponding to lag times of 15,131,546 d respectively.