中文摘要：

目的运用德尔菲法研究慢性阻塞性肺病患者病情发展“快”、“慢”的评价标准。方法在前期流行病学调查、文献研究及临床经验的基础上，面对新疆12个州、市地区的专家进行预调查后，编制第1轮“慢性阻塞性肺病发展快、慢评价标准”专家咨询表。发送给新疆10个州、市的20名专家进行问卷调查、回收及统计分析。结果回收的调查问卷均为有效问卷，回收率为100％，专家积极系数为100％。在发展“快”评价标准的主要指标中，除病程≤10年、肺功能≥II级以外，余项变异系数均〈O．3；次要指标中除急性加重时间≥1个月、6min步行实验1。2级以外，余项变异系数均〈0．3。在发展“慢”评价标准中，主要指标的变异系数均〈0．3。次要指标中除急性加重时间≤1周、6rain步行实验3～4级以外。余项变异系数均〈0.3。结论通过德尔菲法对慢性阻塞性肺病病情发展“快”、“慢”评价标准的指标进行筛选，得到该标准的初步框架，针对个别专家意见不集中的指标，还需进一步研究探讨。

英文摘要：

Objective To discuss the ＂fast＂ or ＂slow＂ evaluation criterion of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease development by Delphi method. Methods On the basis of early epidemiological investigations and literature researches and clinical experiences, the first group of expert advice sheet was prepared for the ＂fast＂ or ＂slow＂ evaluation criterion of COPD after the pre-survey among the experts in 12 cities and counties of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Then the questionnaires were sent to 20 experts in 10 cities and counties of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the results were collated for statistical analysis. Results The returned questionnaires were all valid questionnaires, and the returned rate was 100%, the proportion that the experts actively participated was 100%. In the major indexes of evaluation criterion of development ＂fast＂, except disease duration 10 years, lung function 〉grade II, all CVs of remain indexes 〈 0.3; and in the secondary indexes, except acute exacerbation period 〉1 1 month, result of 6 min walk test was grade 1-2, all CVs of remain indexes 〈 0.3. In the major indexes of evaluation criterion of development ＂slow＂, all CVs 〈 0.3; and in the secondary indexes, except acute exacerbation period 〈 1 week, result of 6 min walk test was grade 3-4, all CVs of remain indexes 〈 0.3. Conclusion The indexes of ＂fast＂ or ＂slow＂ evaluation criterion of COPD development selected by Delphi method can get a primary framework for this standard. But many experts don＇t get basically unanimous opinions for some indexes, which should be further studied.