中文摘要：

在验证由苹果、香蕉和橙子所组成的水果市场相互影响的基础上,以向量自回归模型为基础,采用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法分析三类水果市场基于替代的动态影响关系;并运用多变量条件异方差模型论证三类水果市场的整合性,探讨大宗水果品种间的替代关系。结果表明,三类水果价格相互影响,正因为替代关系的存在,三类水果中任何一类水果市场受到正向外部冲击时其价格上涨的幅度有下降的趋势;苹果对香蕉和橙子的替代性较强,分担来自各类水果市场上涨压力的贡献较大,分别为82%、51%和71%;以苹果、香蕉和橙子为代表的水果市场整合程度高且稳定,外部冲击对水果市场内部替代关系的影响并不显著。水果市场虽然品种多,质量参差不齐,但政府可以通过调控替代性强的苹果的生产和供给来缓解整个水果市场价格波动的剧烈程度,水果市场支持政策的出台应考虑水果品种相互间的影响关系。

英文摘要：

Applying the Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition method, this paper analyzed the interaction effect and the dynamic substitution relationship among the apple, banana, and orange markets. In addition, this paper also applied the VECH model to examine the substitution and integration effects of the main fruit markets. Results show that the prices of apple, banana and orange affected each other because of substitution effects. When fruit markets were struck by external shocks, the price increasing trend tended to decrease. Apple showed strong substitution effect for banana and orange. Apple market contributed a lot on alleviating other fruit markets＇ upward pressure caused by external factors, that is, 82%, 51% and 71%, respectively. In addition, the three-fruit markets were integrated tightly and steadily and external shock did not affect the substitutions among fruit markets significantly. The above conclusions imply that even there are many kinds of fruits and it is hard to regulate fruit markets. The Government could regulate the apple supply and price to alleviate the whole fruit market fluctuations because apple as strong substitution effect for other fruits.