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Stability analysis of multi-group deterministic and stochastic epidemic models with vaccination rate
  • ISSN号:1674-1056
  • 期刊名称:《中国物理B:英文版》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:O175.13[理学—数学;理学—基础数学] O415.5[理学—理论物理;理学—物理]
  • 作者机构:[1]College of Mathematics, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China, [2]School of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150500, China, [3]College of Science, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China, [4]School of Mathematics, Changchun Normal University, Changchun 130032, China
  • 相关基金:Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11326078) and the Project of Science and Technology of Heilongjiang Province of China (Grant No. 12531187).
中文摘要:

We discuss in this paper a deterministic multi-group MSIR epidemic model with a vaccination rate, the basic reproduction number R0, a key parameter in epidemiology, is a threshold which determines the persistence or extinction of the disease. By using Lyapunov function techniques, we show if R0 is greater than 1 and the deterministic model obeys some conditions, then the disease will prevail, the infective persists and the endemic state is asymptotically stable in a feasible region. If R0 is less than or equal to 1, then the infective disappear so the disease dies out. In addition, stochastic noises around the endemic equilibrium will be added to the deterministic MSIR model in order that the deterministic model is extended to a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations. In the stochastic version, we carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model. In addition, regarding the value of R0, when the stochastic system obeys some conditions and R0 is greater than 1, we deduce the stochastic system is stochastically asymptotically stable.Finally, the deterministic and stochastic model dynamics are illustrated through computer simulations.

英文摘要:

We discuss in this paper a deterministic multi-group MSIR epidemic model with a vaccination rate, the basic reproduction number Ro, a key parameter in epidemiology, is a threshold which determines the persistence or extinction of the disease. By using Lyapunov function techniques, we show if Ro is greater than 1 and the deterministic model obeys some conditions, then the disease will prevail, the infective persists and the endemic state is asymptotically stable in a feasible region. If Ro is less than or equal to 1, then the infective disappear so the disease dies out. In addition, stochastic noises around the endemic equilibrium will be added to the deterministic MSIR model in order that the deterministic model is extended to a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations. In the stochastic version, we carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model. In addition, regarding the value of Ro, when the stochastic system obeys some conditions and Ro is greater than 1, we deduce the stochastic system is stochastically asymptotically stable. Finally, the deterministic and stochastic model dynamics are illustrated through computer simulations.

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期刊信息
  • 《中国物理B:英文版》
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国物理学会和中国科学院物理研究所
  • 主编:欧阳钟灿
  • 地址:北京 中关村 中国科学院物理研究所内
  • 邮编:100080
  • 邮箱:
  • 电话:010-82649026 82649519
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1674-1056
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-5639/O4
  • 邮发代号:
  • 获奖情况:
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  • 被引量:406