中文摘要：

根据1988—2008年我国国际旅游和国际贸易的相关数据,利用协整分析技术和Granger因果检验方法,系统分析了国际旅游与国际贸易间的关系。结果显示：①国际旅游与国际贸易之间存在长期均衡关系;②国际入境旅游是国际贸易Granger原因的概率显著,国际出境旅游是国际贸易Granger原因的概率不显著,国际贸易是国际旅游Granger原因的概率不显著。随着经济全球化与一体化的推进,国际旅游与国际贸易发展之间相互促进、相互影响的作用强度将会进一步增强。

英文摘要：

According to the related data of international tourism and international trade from 1988 to 2008 in China,using cointegration analysis technology and Granger causality test,the relationship between international tourism and international trade was analyzed systematically in the paper.The results showed that：①there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between international tourism and international trade.②The probability that international inbound tourism was the Granger causality of international trade was significant;the probability that international outbound tourism was the Granger causality of international trade was not significant;the probability that international trade was the Granger causality of international tourism was not significant.With the economic globalization and integration of international trade,the strength of mutual influence between international tourism and international trade would be further enhanced.