中文摘要：

危机后国际拨备会计准则和监管改革的方向是提高贷款损失拨备的前瞻性。本文基于预期损失模型分析了动态拨备的作用机制，并比较研究了西班牙、乌拉圭等5国实施的动态拨备模式及其实施效果。研究表明，动态拨备制度抑制银行信贷增长的作用虽有限，但能显著提高银行体系的风险缓冲能力。中国应借鉴动态拨备的国际经验，并充分考虑中国实际和国际拨备会计准则的改革趋势，尽快推出纳入规则和监管当局相机抉择机制相结合的前瞻性拨备制度。拨备制度的改革可与《BaselⅡ》、《BaselⅢ））的国内实施时间表相结合，将贷款风险分类和会计准则要求的贷款损失准备计提进行整合，同时满足会计和监管要求。

英文摘要：

The trend of post-crisis international accounting standards and regulatory reform is to improve the forward-looking nature of loan loss provisions. Based on the expected loss model, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the dynamic provisioning, the experience of five countries＇ modes and their implementa- tion results （including Spain, Uruguay, etc）. The result shows that dynamic provisioning has a limited role for constraining credit growth, but can significantly increase the buffer capacity of the banking sys- tem. China should learn from the international experience,fully considering China＇s actual conditions and the reform trend of international accounting standards, and put forward a dynamic provisioning system combining regulatory authority＇s discretion with rules as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the provisioning reform may accord with the schedule of ＂Basel II,＂ ＂Basel III,＂ integrating the risk classification and accounting rules of loan loss provisions.