中文摘要：

物流业快速发展带来的碳排放问题已引起有关部门的高度重视。基于1995—2012年河南省物流企业的统计数据,运用消耗能源折算法对河南省物流行业的碳排放总量和碳排放强度进行了估算,构建了河南省物流企业碳排放的EKC模型曲线,分析了河南省物流企业碳排放的发展历程和规律特征,预测了河南省物流企业碳排放的发展阶段和未来趋势。研究表明：河南省物流企业的碳排放量正处于继续上升的阶段,碳排放强度整体稳中有降,物流碳排放与行业发展呈现出反“N”型的曲线结构,如果加强环境管制、积极发展“低碳物流”将促进碳排放“拐点”提前出现,可实现经济发展与环境保护的“双赢”。

英文摘要：

With the rapid development of the logistics industry,the problem of carbon emissions was attaching more and more attention from the relevant departments.This paper used energy consumption reduction method to estimate the gross of carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity of logistics industry in Henan Province.Based on statistical data of 1995-2012 years,this paper constructed the EKC model curve to analyze the characteristics of the development process and the rules of carbon emissions of logistics enterprises,judge the development stage and forecasts the development trend.The conclusion was that the carbon emissions of Henan Province logistics enterprises was still in the upgrade stage,the carbon emissions intensity was overall stable with light down,the relationship between carbon emissions and logistics industry development presented the curve reverse＂N ＂ type.If we could strengthen environmental regulation and actively develop ＂low carbon logistics＂,carbon emissions inflection point would appear in advance,and realized win-win of economic development and environmental protection.