中文摘要：

本文通过结构性视角,由面板协整检验证明了人口老龄化对房价波动存在长期影响,继以面板误差修正模型讨论了人口结构影响房价波动的区域差别、原因及政策建议。实证结果显示：储蓄、住房需求多元化和家庭结构是造成老年人群推动房价上涨的主要原因,但未来人口老龄化能否引起房价的长期下降,取决于青年人群对住房需求的实现能力;人口老龄化对房价的影响存在区域差异,预示着部分区域房价或已脱离实际面、青年人群的购买力与高房价间矛盾日蹙。从减缓人口老龄化对我国房地产乃至社会经济发展可能带来冲击的角度来看,应及早以前瞻性政策应对。

英文摘要：

From a structural perspective,this paper firstly shows that demographic trends has long- term impact on house prices by employing panel cointegration test. Then by applying panel error correction model,we examine the regional differences in the impact of demographic structure on the fluctuation of house prices,and explore the causes and raise policy suggestions Our empirical research shows that elderly population has contributed to the rise in house prices,but whether this trend will continue depends on how well the young people could afford to buy houses in the future. In all regions,the rise in house prices could not be well explained by demographic variables,which is a potential indication of property bubble. Hence,it is necessary for policy makers to work out appropriate precautionary measures to dealt with potential problems in house market.