中文摘要：

由于国内外对两部制电价的实施效果存在不少分歧，借助Powersim软件构建了两部制电价下电力市场长期分析的系统动力学模型，模拟分析了电力市场长期发展的因素及其相互作用。结果表明，电量电价呈现出周期性波动趋势，容量电价呈现“U”形变动趋势。这意味着，《上网电价管理暂行办法》制定的两部制电价下，发电容量投资速度相对放缓，但未出现不足，也未出现投资过剩，不过申请建设周期、容量电价调整申请批复周期等延迟效果的存在却造成了一定的投资波动现象。同时，模拟分析结果还表明，水电参与竞价上网亟需研究设计合理的交易方式。

英文摘要：

In 2005, National Development and Reform Commission decided to implement two-parts price after generation competition was applied in power generation market. There are different opinions in implementation effect of two-parts price, so they should be tested by practice or experiment. A system dynamics model about electricity market with two-parts price is developed based on Powersim, and the mutual effect between factors about the long-term development of electricity market are simulated. Energy price takes on a periodic fluctuation and capacity price has a ＂U＂ trend curve in the simulaiton, then following conclusions can be deduced from this in electricity market with two-parts price which is made by ＂the tentative management method about pool purchase price＂： first, investment rate becomes lower than ever, and there are no shortage or surplus, however, the delay effect of generation capacity application and construction time, the approve time of capacity price adjustment, and so on, cause investment fluctuation, finally, reasonable tarding manner is urgent for hydro participate in generation competition.