中文摘要：

随着我国畜禽养殖业的快速发展,畜禽生产所导致的粪便污染问题日趋严重,甚至威胁到农业可持续发展. 本研究结合宏观统计数据和实地调研数据,对我国总体和各省2010年畜禽粪便排放和污染情况进行了分析,并通过中国农业可持续发展决策支持系统（CHINAGRO）对2020年我国总体和各省畜禽粪便排放和污染的发展趋势进行了预测分析. 结果表明,2010年我国畜禽粪便排放总量为19.00亿t,形成污染的畜禽粪便量为2.27亿t,平均每公顷耕地的畜禽粪便污染量为1.86 t,我国东南地区的广东、福建等省是畜禽粪便污染较重的区域. 模型预测结果表明,如果不进行政策干预,全国畜禽粪便总污染量将大幅增至2020年的2.98亿t. 东部地区畜禽粪便污染将更为严重,中部和西部地区污染程度相对较低且增幅低于东部地区. 建议通过税收和补贴等政策措施控制畜禽粪便的污染排放,鼓励畜牧业生产向中西部地区转移.

英文摘要：

The rapid development of livestock production in China has brought livestock manure pollution as a serious environment problem, even threatens China＇s agriculture sustainable development. On the basis of public statistical data and field research data, this paper analyzed the magnitude of livestock manure excretion and pollution of China and different provinces in 2010, and predicted development tendencies of livestock manure excretion and pollution in 2020 through the Decision Support System for China＇s Agricultural Sustainable Development（CHINAGRO）. The result shows that total livestock manure excretion of China in 2010 is 1900 million tons, and livestock manure pollution is 227 million tons, while per hectare arable land of livestock manure pollution is 1.86 tons. Provinces in the southeast China, such as Guangdong and Fujian, are areas with high pressure of livestock manure pollution. Model simulation shows that China＇s total amount of livestock manure pollution will increase to 298 million tons in 2020 without government intervention. The pressure of livestock manure pollution will become higher in most regions of China, especially in east and south regions. The situation in central and western region is better than that in east regions although the pollution pressure will also increase in those areas. Policy intervention such as taxes and subsidies should be adopted to reduce the discharge of livestock manure pollution, and encourage livestock production transfer from eastern areas to the central and western regions.