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中国上市公司股票投资的动机研究
  • ISSN号:1672-0334
  • 期刊名称:管理科学
  • 时间:2015.7.20
  • 页码:120-131
  • 分类:F830.59[经济管理—金融学]
  • 作者机构:[1]北京理工大学人文与社会科学学院,北京100081, [2]对外经济贸易大学国际商学院,北京100029, [3]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金(71202146,71402028,71403180);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(13QNGLX01,CXTD5-02)
  • 相关项目:基金经理短视对基金投资和市场效率影响的研究
中文摘要:

股票投资是中国上市公司的一种重要的投资活动,但对这种投资活动的动机缺少研究。基于2007年至2013年中国沪、深股市上市公司定期报告披露的证券投资信息,采用多元线性回归和Logit回归等统计分析方法,从上市公司股票投资的概率、投资规模、盈亏状况、持股周期4个方面检验上市公司进行股票投资的跟风投资、现金管理和平滑利润3种动机。研究结果表明,股市回报率与上市公司进行股票投资的概率负相关,否定了跟风投资动机;现金流入较多、利润波动较大的上市公司股票投资概率更高,投资规模也更大,支持现金管理和平滑利润动机;只有约7%的上市公司能够通过股票投资实现总利润扭亏为盈,说明上市公司虽然通过股票投资平滑了利润,但没有操纵利润;上市公司所持有的股票中50%~80%的股票持股周期短于1个季度,持股周期越短的股票投资业绩越好,反映了上市公司股票投资期限较短,符合现金管理动机。研究结果支持现金管理和平滑利润动机,否定跟风投资动机。研究结论对投资者理解上市公司的股票投资活动以及监管机构制定相关政策具有重要借鉴意义。

英文摘要:

Security investment is one of the important investments conducted by the Chinese listed firms. However, the studies on the motives of security investments are scant. Based on the security investment information disclosed in financial reports of the listed firms on Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in China from 2007 through 2013, the motives of the listed firm's stock investments are studied through the investigations of the probability, size, performance and persistence of the stock investments of the listed firms. Three possible motives for the listed firms to invest on stocks are herding investments, cash management, and earnings smoothing. The research methods include multivariate linear regressions and Logit regressions. Empirical results show that a listed firm's decision to whether invest on stocks. That is, once a listed firm starts investing, the probability that it stops investing is around 71.43% ; whereas a non-investing firm has a probability of 77.10% to remain non-in- vesting. The probability that a listed firm invests on stocks is negatively associated with stock market returns. This evidence re- fuse herding investment motive. The listed firms with more cash inflows and more volatile earnings are more likely to invest on stocks and the investment sizes tend to be larger, supporting the motives of cash management and earnings smoothing. In most cases, the listed firms make profits on their stock investments. But only 7% of the listed firms can turn negative total earnings into positive ones simply by including the results of stock investments in total earnings. Therefore, the results suggest that it is difficult for the listed firms to manipulate their accounting earnings figures through strategically choosing the timing of stock investments. Among the stocks held by the listed firms, around 50% to 80% of them are held for less than one quarter. Multivariate regressions on the listed firms' stock investment performances illustrate that the listed firms gain more on the shorter term stock

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期刊信息
  • 《管理科学》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:哈尔滨工业大学
  • 主办单位:哈尔滨工业大学管理学院
  • 主编:蓝华
  • 地址:哈尔滨市南岗区法院街13号
  • 邮编:150001
  • 邮箱:GLKX@hit.edu.cn
  • 电话:0451-86414056
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1672-0334
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:23-1510/C
  • 邮发代号:14-210
  • 获奖情况:
  • 第三届国家期刊奖提名奖期刊,中国期刊方阵双效期刊,中国科技论文统计源期刊,中国核心期刊(遴选)数据库收录期刊,中文社会科学引文索引来源期刊(CSSCI),中国学术期刊综合评价数据库统计源期刊,中国期刊全文数据库全文收录期刊,中文科技期刊数据库收录期刊,中国期刊网和中国学术期刊(光盘版)全文收录期刊
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国社科基金资助期刊,中国国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库
  • 被引量:11435