中文摘要：

骨折愈合是个复杂的过程,为了保证骨折愈合的质量和速度,必须动态精确地预测骨折愈合过程中创伤断面应力的大小及其变化趋势,以便及时调整骨折治疗装置对创伤断面的施力。针对现有应力预测方法预测精度较低的问题,提出基于弱化缓冲算子和GM（1,1）等维新息模型的骨折愈合应力的动态预测方法。先将实测应力数据经过弱化缓冲算子作用,再利用GM（1,1）等维新息模型对弱化处理后的应力数据序列建立预测模型。设计活体山羊骨折模型进行动物实验,获取活体山羊骨折愈合过程中创伤断面的日平均应力,利用该方法进行建模,对骨折愈合过程中次日的创伤断面应力进行动态预测,并与基于GM（1,1）等维新息模型的应力预测结果进行比较。应力预测结果表明：所提出的基于弱化缓冲算子和GM（1,1）等维新息模型的应力预测方法具有很高的预测精度,以预测误差的平方和作为评价指标,其预测精度达到基于GM（1,1）等维新息模型应力预测方法的40倍以上,具有较好的骨折治疗临床应用前景。

英文摘要：

Fracture healing is a complicated process,research shows that the stress environment of traumatic section is one of the main factors that affect the quality and speed of fracture healing.In order to guarantee the quality and speed of fracture healing,it is necessary to predict the stress and its variation tendency dynamically and accurately in the course of fracture healing,so that the applied force from fracture treatment device on traumatic section can be immediately adjusted.In allusion to the low predictive precision problem of existing stress predictive methods,this paper proposed a dynamic method for predicting fracture healing stress based on weakening buffer operator and equal-dimension-new-information GM（1,1） model.This method in first step used the role of weakening buffer operator for actual measured stress data,and then built the predictive model of weakening processed stress data sequence by using GM（1,1） equal-dimension-new-information model.Testing experiments were conducted in goat fracture models,and the daily average stress on trauma section in the course of fracture healing was obtained.Experimental results showed that the predictive precision was 40 times of that obtained from the method based on GM（1,1） equal-dimension-new-information model.