中文摘要：

针对机电产品市场周期中配件需求预测与供应问题，基于机电产品易损耗零部件的失效时间分布密度函数，分析了产品中这类零部件的服役年龄分布和替换规律，建立了面向机电产品市场周期的机电产品配件需求预测模型，继而提出了机电产品配件生产与供应策略。以零件的寿命分布满足正态分布函数为例，通过数值仿真，分析探讨了零件失效时间分布密度函数的参数和生产批量对零件替换率和配件需求量的影响，提出了基于零件寿命正态分布的配件生产供应方案，与常规方法的对比分析表明，所提方法具有优越性。

英文摘要：

In order to solve the problem of requirement prediction and supply of spare parts in the eleetromechanical product market cycle, the service age distribution and replacement rate of the parts were investigated based on their time--to--failure density function, and the model of spare part requirement prediction for electromechanical products market cycle was developed. Then spare part produetion and supply strategies for electromechanical products were proposed by means of simulation. For parts with the normal time--to--failure density function, throughout simulation, the influence of the parameters of normal density function and production batch on the part replacement and spare part requirement was discussed. Then, a new spare part production and supply strategy was given based on simulation and compared with the traditional production and supply strategy. The results is illuminated that the new strategy is more reasonable.