中文摘要：

选用莺落峡1944—2004年和疏勒河1953—1999年的流量资料，分析了近50年河西内陆河流量的持续性、周期性、年际变化及其对青藏高原地面加热场强度异常的响应。结果表明：河西走廊中、西部的水资源具有很好的持续性，特别是在秋、冬季节。河西走廊中、西部的水资源与前期青藏高原地面加热场强度存在较好的相关关系。前期（4月份）的环流特征可预报后期5月份流量。多水年新疆脊弱，东亚槽浅，降水偏多，流量加大；反之亦然。径流预报实质上可作为西北地区的干旱预报。

英文摘要：

Selecting Yinluoxia station＇s runoff data from the 1944 to 2004 and Shule river station＇s runoff data from the 1953 to 1999, we analyze the persistence, the periodicity and the annual variety of the flow in inland river in Hexi regions of Gansu in past 50 years and its response to the abnormity in the surface heat intension on tibetan plateau. The result shows that water resources of the middle and the west of Gansu corridor have good persistence, especially in fall and winter. There is good correlation between water resources of the middle and the west of Gansu corridor and the surface heat intension on tibetan plateau. The early circumfluence characteristics can forecast the runoff of late May. Xinjiang ridge is weaker, East Asia trough is shallower, precipitation and flow is increasing; and vice versa. Runoff forecast can be used as the Northwest drought forecasting virtually.